Restrictions on Rhine navigation and low inventories supported European physical gasoil premiums in October 2026, despite refiners increasing middle distillate yields, according to Alkagesta Market Insights. Its report dated 21 October describes volatile prices and constrained availability across Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, with inland delivery difficulties limiting replenishment in Germany and Switzerland.
Alkagesta reported water-level readings at Germany’s Kaub chokepoint of just 1–2 cm on 6 and 8 October, followed by a recovery to around 18 cm on 20 October. It said these conditions prevented barges from carrying normal loads. The resulting transport constraints allowed some stocks to accumulate at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp terminals while restricting deliveries to inland storage sites, leaving coastal inventories and inland availability out of step.
ARA gasoil inventories increased by 180,000 tonnes to 1.816 million tonnes in the week ending 1 October, before standing at 1.664 million tonnes in mid-month, according to the report. Even after the initial increase, stocks remained below comparable 2025 levels: the year-on-year deficit widened from 18% at the beginning of October to 21% by 15 October. Alkagesta also put OECD gasoil inventories at 565 million barrels, 5% below historical benchmarks.
High outright prices discouraged consumers from stocking up on heating oil ahead of winter, the company said, leaving distributors and end-users purchasing only for immediate requirements. Against that backdrop, barge differentials for 50 ppm gasoil moved from a $26.75-per-tonne discount to front-month ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil futures in early October to a $10.75 premium by mid-month. The product is used for heating in Germany and Switzerland.
Seaborne supply was also being reshaped. Alkagesta said low European stocks and middle distillate shortages east of Suez drew US Gulf Coast gasoil towards Northwest European and Mediterranean ports. It reported Arab Gulf-to-UK/Continent LR1 freight reaching $220.77 per tonne on 19 October, compared with $46.41 a year earlier, while MR1 tanker utilisation increased on US Gulf Coast routes to the UK/Continent and Brazil.
Looking ahead, Alkagesta expects secondary refinery maintenance, delayed heating-oil purchases and persistent Rhine restrictions to maintain pressure on prompt supplies. It anticipates greater reliance on higher-cost rail and pipeline transport until sustained rainfall improves navigation. These forecasts reflect the company’s own assessment, drawing on internal analysis and public information; its disclaimer notes that some numerical inputs derive from or are informed by S&P Global Platts material.