Rhine transport disruption is leaving fuel oil concentrated in European coastal storage while Singapore faces restricted prompt supplies, according to Alkagesta’s market assessment published on 5 October. The company attributes the divide to drought-related barge restrictions in Europe, Persian Gulf transit difficulties and freight costs that make west-to-east shipments uneconomic.
Alkagesta reports that Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp fuel oil stocks rose 18.5% week on week to 961,000 tonnes as of 1 October. It says restrictions on the Rhine prevented distribution to inland German and Swiss depots, while Shell Rheinland and MiRO Karlsruhe reduced barge loadings by up to a third. The assessment describes a widening separation between coastal inventories and inland availability as winter demand approaches, alongside subdued spot bunker buying in ARA.
In Asia, the company expects October arrivals of low-sulphur marine fuel from Western hubs to reach 1.5 million–1.6 million tonnes, against 1.6 million–1.8 million tonnes in September. Elevated dirty tanker freight rates and insufficient east-west price incentives are limiting prompt arbitrage, it says. Singapore’s onshore heavy distillate inventories fell 5.3% to 18.70 million barrels in the week ended 30 September, while Fujairah residual stocks dropped 30% week on week to 3.91 million barrels, according to the assessment.
Alkagesta puts Singapore’s delivered very-low-sulphur fuel oil premium at $70.33 a tonne above cargo values, a weekly increase of 24.3%. It reports the October-November Singapore 380 CST high-sulphur fuel oil swaps spread in backwardation at $39.25 a tonne on 5 October, down from $51.55 on 1 October. The equivalent 0.5% marine fuel spread stood at $37 a tonne, indicating higher prices for the nearer delivery period.
The company expects Singapore’s finished-grade low-sulphur fuel availability to remain constrained through the first half of October, before component inflows recover later in the month. It also identifies South Asian utility demand as support for high-sulphur fuel oil, citing substitution away from disrupted LNG supplies. These are company forecasts rather than confirmed outcomes: Alkagesta says its assessment draws on internal analysis and public information, with some numerical data derived from or informed by S&P Global Platts material.